**Replication files for Gray and Smith, "Retrospective Voting in the Pre-Modern World: The Case of Natural Disasters in the Roman Republic**

**variables
*year - the year of the praetorship
*praenomen - the first name of the praetor (initial)
*nomen - the family name of the praetor
*f - the praetor's father's first name (initial)
*n - the praetor's grand-father's first name (initial)
*cognomen - the praetor's cognomen, if there was one
*cog2 - the praetor's second cognonmen, if there was one
*pat - wheter the praetor was a known patrician
*war - whether the praetorship was served during a time of war
*praet6 - whether the praetorship was served when there were 6 praetors
*outcome5 - whether the praetor become consul within five years
*flood - whether there was a flood in the year of the praetorsip
*urban - whether the praetor's jurisdiction was one of the two urban posts
*logf10 - the logged value of the praetor's family's civic posts in the preceding ten years
*consular - whether the praetor was from a known consular lineage
*insecurity - a measure of the defensive security of the state during the praetorship
*lead - a measure of lead output from ice cores attributed to the year of the praetorship
*forcedinteraction - a measure of the interaction between flood and urban 
*graphyear, gprob, gurb, ggph - variables holding values to display graphs

*Load Gray Smith Families Graph Data.dta*

graph twoway line aemilius year, lcolor(gray%30) legend(off) || line calpurnius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line cassius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line claudius year, lcolor(blue) || line cornelius year, lcolor(green) || line fabius year, lcolor(yellow) || line flaminius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line fulvius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line furius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line iulius year, lcolor(red) || line iunius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line licinius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line manlius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line mucius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line octavius year, lcolor(purple) || line porcius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line sempronius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line servilius year, lcolor(gray%30) || line sulpicius year, lcolor(gray%30)


*Load Gray Smith Replication Data.dta*

graph twoway connected insecurity graphyear
graph twoway connected lead graphyear

reg outcome5 i.urban##i.flood, cluster(year)
reg outcome5 i.urban i.forcedinteraction i.year, cluster(year)
reg outcome5 praet6 i.war i.urban##i.flood pat lead consular c.logf10 insecurity year, cluster(year)
reg outcome5 i.urban i.forcedinteraction pat consular c.logf10 i.year, cluster(year)


reg outcome5 praet6 i.war i.urban##i.flood pat lead consular c.logf10 insecurity year, cluster(year)
margins, at(flood=(0 1) urban=(0 1))
graph twoway scatter gprob gurb if ggph==1, legend(off) mcolor(538g) msymbol(circle) || scatter gprob gurb if ggph==2, mcolor(538b) msymbol(circle) || connected gprob gurb if ggph==3, lcolor(538g) msymbol(none) ||  connected gprob gurb if ggph==4, lcolor(538g) msymbol(none) || connected gprob gurb if ggph==5, lcolor(538b) msymbol(none) || || connected gprob gurb if ggph==6, lcolor(538b) msymbol(none)  

margins, dydx(flood) at(urban=(0 1))







